It’s crunch time. Fantasy managers with records of 7-5, 6-6 and 5-7 are going to sweat plenty these next two weeks. With most leagues starting the fantasy playoffs in Week 15, the playoff push for teams in the hunt brings a level of stress that Spinal Tap fans would measure at 11.
Every start and sit counts. Every fantasy analyst’s take that impacts their squads is read and reread. No stat that applies to a player’s projection goes unexplored. Everything just seems to be heightened in the playoff hunt.
It could even mean going back to players who were previously sent to fantasy Siberia. That’s the area also known as the Coping Corner, the moniker our amigos Andy Behrens and Matt Harmon gave to the place where players with roles and/or production far less than were projected for them are relegated.
When it comes to fantasy football, and especially with the playoffs on the line, there are no absolutes. It’s a week-to-week season, and if a player has a good matchup, forget about the previous week. That could mean the difference between a championship and a runner-up finish. (Remember Mike Evans in Week 17 last year.)
So, for this week’s Running Back Report, we’re revisiting five running backs who have surged of late, after several frustrating weeks where fantasy managers justifiably thought of benching the players for good (or seeing them stuck on IR). A sixth was added because his situation changed for the better. And like John Travolta disco-dancing in a Santa suit, a comeback is always welcome. In the case of these running backs, the comebacks could mean coming up big at the most important point of the season.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Behrens and Harmon put the entire Atlanta offense into the Coping Corner weeks ago. Robinson went into the Falcons’ bye week off a 106-yard performance with a touchdown. Still, there were people considering sitting Robinson against a New Orleans defense that had not allowed 100 rushing yards to any running back this season.
The Saints have kept that record alive, but Robinson still put up 123 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns for an RB3 finish on the week.
Robinson is no longer being used as a timeshare back. He’s more than doubled the snap share of Tyler Allgeier the past two games (69.3% to 27.6%) and run more routes, 35-6. The opportunities that fantasy managers want in a bell-cow back are there, and the dynamic talent that the college scouting community could not heap enough superlatives upon is very much on display. This week the Falcons travel to the Jets, who are allowing 101.3 rushing yards to running backs and are ninth in fantasy points allowed to the position. Then in Week 14, the Buccaneers come to Atlanta, who most recently gave up 91 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor; a week earlier, 103 scrimmage yards to Christian McCaffrey.
Robinson could just be the topping to a playoff push.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
I know, it’s not fun watching this offense. No one is telling you to watch more highlights of the Pats. Stevenson, though, is reason enough to watch. He is the highlights.
In Weeks 3-5, when Stevenson finished every game at less than 10 fantasy points, those rostering him were lamenting drafting him the same way horse-racing bettors tear up losing tickets.
Stevenson is cashing in lately, though.
In Week 9, Stevenson amassed 129 total yards, and followed that up with two more games in the triple digits. That included 21-98 this past Sunday, while scoring the only touchdown for the Patriots. In those three games, Stevenson has a 69.3% snap share, more than double Ezekiel Elliott. He has double the targets as Elliott too, 16-8. Stevenson is firmly in the Patriots' No. 1 role, and even in an anemic offense, that is valuable.
Games against the Chargers and at Pittsburgh are on tap, and neither defense has been formidable against running backs. Keaton Mitchell just posted 89 total yards against the Chargers, who are No. 7 against the position. The Steelers are 13th, though they have toughened up the past two weeks.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Speaking of the Steelers, we’ve talked about how Jaylen Warren has become a larger part of this offense. But Harris hasn't disappeared. Gone are the days of him finishing as a top-10 RB — he’s RB27 — but the Steelers keep feeding him, and he responded this week with 99 yards on 15 carries and Pittsburgh’s lone touchdown in a 16-10 victory over Cincinnati. He received the only rushing attempt inside the 5-yard line, cashing in a touchdown.
That’s four games in a row with at least 12 carries for Harris, and in three of those games he has at least 69 rushing yards. He’s also scored three times in that span. That’s RB2 country, and with the NFL playoffs on the line he could be a contributing factor to advancing. He won’t likely have an explosion week, but the next two matchups are inviting. Arizona is fourth in the league averaging 110.8 rushing yards to the position. Then it’s the Patriots, who gave up 75 total yards to Jonathan Taylor two weeks ago.
Harris is like that play in blackjack when you just close your eyes and say, "Hit me."
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
How did the second-year back out of Notre Dame go five weeks without playing before immediately being inserted into the starting lineup to run all over the Cardinals? Williams compiled 204 scrimmage yards and a pair of receiving scores to finish as the RB1 in Week 12. Going against the Cardinals defense a second time sure helps — he ran for 158 yards and a score on them in Week 6.
The answer here? It’s the role.
In Weeks 2-6 and 12, Williams owned an 83.3% snap share (gracias, Fantasy Points Data). He ran over two-thirds of the Rams' rush attempts and was targeted 12.2% of the time. This is elite bell-cow utilization.
Where it gets complicated starts this Sunday. The Browns come to town, and they are the ninth-stingiest defense against running backs, though Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine ran on them for 120 rushing yards last Sunday. And All-Pro Myles Garrett is nursing a shoulder injury.
A trip to play the Ravens is next, and they just held Austin Ekeler to 64 total yards. If Williams' fantasy managers survive and make the playoffs, games against the Commanders and Giants are plenty inviting for him.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Pollard was put so emphatically into the Coping Corner that Behrens and Harmon renamed it Pollard’s Playground. However, the past couple weeks have been encouraging to the point he’s starting to climb up running back charts.
Let’s do a guessing game:
Player A: 230 touches, 1,038 scrimmage yards
Player B: 199 touches, 902 scrimmage yards
Player A is RB3 Travis Etienne, who is boosted by eight touchdowns. Player B is Pollard at RB15 with just four touchdowns. Those two sure look closer than a dozen spots, and Pollard may just be surging at the right time.
Pollard ran all over the Commanders on Thanksgiving for 103 yards and a score to finish RB9. The week before, 80 yards and a spike against Carolina. The Memphis product now gets the Seahawks, who just got stampeded by Christian McCaffrey for 139 total yards and two touchdowns. Then come the Eagles, who, while they have allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs and are fourth with 62.1 rushing yards allowed to the position, James Cook did post 100 scrimmage yards against them. Isaiah Pacheco rumbled for 89 yards the week prior. Plus, that game will be in Dallas, and last year these teams combined for 74 points on Christmas Eve in Big D.
Zack Moss, Indianapolis Colts
Moss was a late addition to this list, after Jonathan Taylor was announced to be needing thumb surgery; he's expected to miss 2-3 weeks. Let’s remember how good Moss was Weeks 2-4, when he was the RB7 with 280 yards and four total touchdowns. Going into Tuesday night, Moss was available in 49% of Yahoo leagues. That has changed — he's ballooned up to 80%.
In the last three games, Taylor has been comfortably operating as the lead horse for the Colts. He was on the field for 132 snaps to 47 for Moss. Taylor also has a 67.5% rushing attempts share. Now Moss is going into that role.
A trip to Tennessee is first up, and the Titans have allowed one 100-yard rusher this year: Moss for 165 yards in Week 5. Perhaps he can come close to that mark again. Then come the Bengals, who just got trampled by Harris and Jaylen Warren for 161 yards; Devin Singletary went 30-150 two weeks prior. These are at least the weeks when Moss is a no-doubt fantasy starter.
